Aussie

My focus today is going to be the AUD/USD. This is my main pair, it has the best value for me and it has really good movement throughout the day. With the news releases coming at 10AM I'm setting up my entries for after those announcements. The image above shows the 3HR chart for the Aussie. You can see the last couple of weeks have been a bit of a pull back from the previous move downward. Right now price is sitting at the 0.23 fib level drawn from the Feb 5th low to yesterday's high (the pink fib retracement). Also notice that yesterdays high was at the .50 fib level for the blue retracement drawn from the Jan. 13th high to the Feb 5th low. So there is potential for good movement both ways.

Looking closer in the small time frames that I trade we are in a downturn from yesterday. This is the trend I am looking to follow.

The top chart above shows the main trade I'll be looking for today. If price breaks through the daily low I will be looking to short with a target of 0.8810 which is a fib level and I like to get out before price gets around the 00 and 50 prices. My stop would be 0.8905. We'll see how it turns out. I'll update after the news.

12:20 PM

Well no go on that one for right now. I thought the housing data might get it started but Mr. Bernanke didn't say anything to help out the move, so blah. Hopefully Asia is productive this evening as 7:30 is Australia's Private Capital Expenditure q/q release and at 9:00 PM is New Zealand's Bank Conference. Aussie Kiwi night!

11:00PM

AUD/USD is ticking back down and there is a possibility that my earlier trade idea might come in to play. We'll see how it turns out.

2:38 AM

Moment of truth right here. Price is dancing around the low I spoke about originally, we will either see a break soon or a healthy bounce. I am hoping for a break which would usher in my trade plan outlined above. Of course price action could fizzle out and go sideways, but I don't want to think about that right now :)